Xi's Divide and Conquer Strategy: Lessons from Ancient Greece
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Chapter 1: Historical Context of Divide and Conquer
The strategy of divide and conquer has long been associated with British colonial tactics, particularly evident in their manipulation of religious divisions in India, which still fuel conflicts between Hindus and Muslims today. This method, however, is rooted in history far earlier than colonial times, dating back to at least the 5th century BC.
The Ancient Greek vs. Persian Example
Following the unification of the ancient Greek city-states to repel the Persian invasion, exemplified by the pivotal Battle of Marathon in 490 BC and the naval Battle of Salamis in 480 BC, the Persians retreated. Instead of abandoning their ambitions, they strategically turned to incite conflict between Sparta and Athens, the two dominant city-states of that era.
Utilizing espionage, propaganda, financial incentives, and other underhanded tactics, the Persians sought to erode Greek unity from within. Their goal was either to weaken Greece enough for a future invasion or to exact revenge. Ultimately, Sparta triumphed in the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC) with Persian support to build their navy and due to a series of poor military choices by Athens, compounded by a devastating plague.
Chapter 2: Contemporary Parallels
So, why draw parallels between ancient Greece and Xi's current maneuvers in Europe? The relevance of Thucydides' observations about the inevitable conflict between Sparta and Athens due to the latter's rising power is strikingly applicable today. This phenomenon, often referred to as the "Thucydides Trap," is a critical topic in military strategy, especially in American institutions.
In this modern context, the United States can be likened to Sparta, while China represents Athens. Despite their distinct political ideologies, both nations maintain a network of alliances and influences reminiscent of the ancient powers. The U.S. boasts NATO and allies such as Japan and Australia, whereas China has aligned itself with Russia and several nations in Africa through substantial investments.
The EU, primarily composed of NATO countries, presents a softer target for Xi than the U.S. due to its current lack of cohesion. While the United States functions as a robust federation, the EU operates more as a loose confederation, leading to disparate foreign policies and approaches to China.
Xi's Maneuvers at the G20 Summit
Xi seized the opportunity at the G20 summit to exploit this disunity. After an embarrassing encounter with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, he disregarded both Charles Michel and Ursula Von Der Leyen, leaders representing the European Council and Commission respectively. His meeting with President Biden extended for 3.5 hours, while his session with French President Emmanuel Macron lasted only 43 minutes, leaving European leaders scrambling for scraps.
This behavior mirrors tactics previously employed by Trump against the EU and NATO, yet Xi's calculated demeanor makes him a more formidable adversary. He is not prone to impulsive decisions, making his strategies potentially more effective. By maintaining the current fragmented state of Europe, he can engage with the U.S. without the added complexity of a united European front.
Macron's overly complimentary approach towards Xi at the G20, reflecting a naive belief in Xi's vanity akin to that of Trump, underscores the dangers of underestimating such a strategic thinker.
Xi's Divide and Conquer Strategy
The ancient tactic of divide and conquer remains a powerful tool in contemporary geopolitics. Xi's strategic acumen suggests he is well-versed in the principles of both Sun Tzu and Thucydides. With projections indicating that China may surpass the U.S. in GDP within a decade, the implications are profound. Unlike the ancient Greek conflict, any potential war with China could escalate to a nuclear level, making such a scenario unlikely.
The lessons from history remind us of the ongoing relevance of these strategies. Share your thoughts: does the prospect of China becoming the world's largest economy concern you? And do you believe Xi will maintain his position of power by 2032?
Exploring whether Xi's actions in Europe signify a deliberate attempt to fracture Western unity.
A look at how China's influence is creating divisions within Europe, particularly through its relationships with Hungary and Serbia.
Sources:
- As Xi reemerges, Europe again falls prey to China’s divide-and-rule tactics | POLITICO
- History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides
- A historical-contemporary article by Nikolaos Skordilis